For a long time, if you asked a room full of investors where the safest bets were in commercial real estate, you’d hear the same names over and over again—New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, maybe Los Angeles. These so-called “gateway cities” had the brand recognition, the corporate headquarters, and the international capital that made them feel bulletproof. But if there’s one thing the past ten years have taught us—especially in the wake of the pandemic—it’s that markets evolve, and we need to evolve with them.
Lately, I’ve been spending more time thinking about what really drives growth, and where the next decade of opportunity lies. All signs point to one clear answer: the Sun Belt. That broad band of southern states—Texas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Arizona, and parts of Nevada—has become the epicenter of population shifts, business migration, and infrastructure investment. And commercial real estate is right at the heart of it.
Following the People and the Jobs
If you’re trying to predict where real estate will thrive, start by looking at where people are moving. Over the last several years, millions of Americans have relocated from high-cost, high-tax states to cities where housing is more affordable, taxes are lower, and the climate is more favorable. Places like Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, Tampa, and Atlanta are no longer secondary markets. They’re now front-runners in attracting both talent and capital.
As people move, businesses follow. Major corporations—from tech giants to manufacturing firms—are setting up shop in the Sun Belt. They’re building campuses, logistics hubs, data centers, and research facilities in states that offer favorable tax policies, faster permitting, and an eager workforce. For commercial real estate, this shift means higher demand for industrial space, multifamily housing, retail, and even health care infrastructure. It’s a full-spectrum growth story, and we’re only in the early innings.
The Gateway City Slowdown
Meanwhile, many of the gateway cities are still struggling to regain their footing. That’s not to say they’re fading away completely—New York and San Francisco will always be global hubs—but they’re facing real headwinds. Office vacancy rates are high. Regulatory burdens are heavy. Construction costs are steep, and rent control policies can make multifamily investments less attractive.
I’ve always believed in assessing markets based on fundamentals, not reputation. It doesn’t matter how iconic a skyline is if the economic model underneath it no longer supports sustainable growth. Investors need to look past history and focus on what the data is telling us now. And the data says that Sun Belt markets are where the momentum is.
Real Estate That Reflects the Future
One of the things I appreciate about investing in the Sun Belt is that it allows you to build—and invest in—real estate that’s designed for today’s needs. Newer infrastructure, more flexible zoning, and cooperative local governments make it possible to move quickly and build smart. Whether it’s environmentally friendly design, tech-integrated logistics, or housing that meets the needs of working families, the Sun Belt is a place where innovation meets opportunity.
This isn’t just about higher returns. It’s also about impact. Through my work with workforce housing and community development, I’ve seen firsthand how the right real estate investment can lift neighborhoods, create jobs, and bring dignity to the places people live and work. In many Sun Belt cities, the need for this kind of thoughtful development is both urgent and welcomed. That combination is powerful.
The Role of Experience and Adaptability
David Rocker has spent much of his career helping companies and organizations optimize systems and scale with intention. That same mindset applies to commercial real estate. Markets don’t stay still. What worked yesterday may not work tomorrow. The key is being willing to challenge assumptions and adapt your strategy when the facts change.
Investors who stay locked into legacy models miss the opportunity to capitalize on emerging trends. Right now, the movement is clear. People want livable cities. Businesses want efficiency. States want growth. The Sun Belt offers a combination of economic drivers and policy incentives that make it an ideal environment for forward-thinking commercial real estate.
This isn’t about picking sides—it’s about being clear-eyed. The gateway cities had their run, and they’ll always play a role in the global economy. But growth is no longer confined to the coasts. It’s happening in the heartland, in cities that are rewriting the rules of urban development and proving that business-friendly doesn’t have to mean low-quality or short-sighted.
As someone who has worked in both fast-growth companies and long-term community planning, I can tell you this: where people choose to live, work, and build has everything to do with what kind of future we create. The Sun Belt is building that future now. And for investors willing to look beyond the usual suspects, the opportunities are as bright as the name suggests.